Variation in temperature but not diet determines the stability of latitudinal clines in tolerance traits and their plasticity.

Latitudinal clines are routinely used as evidence of adaptation across broad climatic gradients. However, if environmental variation influences the strength of latitudinal clines, then clinal patterns will be unstable, and using patterns of adaptation to predict population responses to global change will be difficult. To test whether environmental variation influences latitudinal clines, we sampled five populations of Drosophila melanogaster spanning 3000 km of east coast Australia, and measured stress tolerance (heat, cold and desiccation) and body size on flies that developed in six combinations of temperature (13°C, 25°C and 29°C) and diet (standard and low-calorie) treatments. We found latitudinal clines where populations further from the equator had larger wings, higher cold tolerance and lower heat tolerance. For all traits, temperature determined the strength of latitudinal clines, whereas diet had little influence. Steeper clines often emerged in warmer treatments, created by latitudinal clines in plasticity. In the warmest temperature, higher latitude populations showed larger increases in heat tolerance, larger reductions in desiccation tolerance but smaller decreases in cold tolerance. Heat tolerance was the only trait that supported the climate variability hypothesis and a trade-off between plasticity and tolerance. Environment-dependent latitudinal clines are therefore likely to determine variation in population responses to global change.