Impact of vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 variants on severe COVID-19 outcomes: a cross-sectional study, Brazil, 2021-2022.

Objective: To investigate association between vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and severe outcomes among Brazilian patients hospitalized due to COVID-19.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using Brazilian Ministry of Health data on patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome due to COVID-19 between 2021 and 2022. Demographic, clinical, and outcome variables were analyzed, considering SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination status. Statistical tests included Pearson's chi-square test, Cochran-Armitage trend test, Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, and Poisson regression with robust variance to identify risk factors for invasive mechanical ventilation and death, estimating prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results: A total of 73,193 patients were analyzed. The Omicron variant was associated with lower rates of respiratory symptoms, invasive ventilation, and mortality compared to other variants. Vaccination significantly reduced the likelihood of invasive mechanical ventilation and death. Patients infected during the period of predominant Omicron circulation had 21.0% lower prevalence of invasive mechanical ventilation (PR 0.79; 95%CI 0.74; 0.84) and 25.0% lower prevalence of death (PR 0.75; 95%CI 0.72; 0.79). Full vaccination status also showed a protective effect, with a 22.0% reduction in prevalence of invasive mechanical ventilation (PR 0.78; 95%CI 0.72; 0.85) and a 16.0% reduction in prevalence of death (PR 0.84; 95%CI 0.79; 0.90), compared to unvaccinated individuals.

Conclusion: The Omicron variant was associated with lower rates of invasive mechanical ventilation and mortality compared to previous variants, while vaccination demonstrated a significant protective effect by reducing severe outcomes.