A Year in the Shadow of Terror: Longitudinal Effects of the October 7, 2023, Terrorist Attack on PTSD, Depression, Anxiety, and Suicidal Ideation Across Distinct Exposure Groups.

Background: On October 7, 2023, Israel experienced a large-scale terrorist attack followed by a prolonged war, exposing civilians and military personnel to acute and sustained trauma. While prior studies have documented short-term psychological effects of mass trauma, few have included baseline assessments or addressed long-term trajectories across distinct exposure groups. In this study, we aimed to examine changes over time in both probable diagnoses and symptom severity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation (SI), while accounting for preattack symptom levels among different exposed groups.

Methods: A prospective, representative study assessed 614 Israeli participants (309 females; 50.3%) through an online survey conducted across 3 time points: prior to the attack (T1), 1 month after (T2), and 1 year later (T3). Participants were categorized into 4 mutually exclusive exposure groups based on a predefined hierarchy prioritizing the most impactful exposure: direct exposure, bereavement (loss of a close other), reserve-duty combatants, and indirect exposure. Probable diagnoses of PTSD (using the International Trauma Questionnaire), depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-2), and anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder-2) were assessed along with symptom severity and SI (SI by the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale). Generalized estimating equations were used to examine main and interaction effects of exposure type and time (T2 to T3), controlling for baseline symptom levels (T1).

Results: Overall, prevalence and severity of psychiatric symptoms declined between T2 and T3. However, exposure group moderated these changes. Reserve-duty combatants exhibited the highest rates of probable diagnoses and symptoms at both time points, with minimal improvement over time. In contrast, indirectly exposed participants demonstrated significant symptom reduction. Uniquely, SI increased over time among reserve-duty participants, highlighting their vulnerability.

Conclusions: Recovery following mass trauma such as the October 7th attack is not uniform. Exposure type and initial distress levels shape distinct psychological trajectories. Findings underscore the importance of differentiated, long-term, and trauma-informed interventions-especially for bereaved and reserve-duty individuals. Integration of baseline mental health data enhances risk identification and has critical implications for both clinical care and policy planning in the context of ongoing national crises.