Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden trends in Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa in 1990-2021.

Background: Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is a highly aggressive malignant tumor with a high fatality rate. The global incidence and mortality of GBTC continue to increase, presenting a significant challenge to public health. Strategies for preventing and controlling GBTC in Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries offer valuable lessons for other developing nations.

Aim: To investigate GBTC burden trends in BRICS countries and perform an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) from 1990-2021.

Methods: Data on the incidences and crude incidence rates, the number of deaths and crude mortality rates, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of GBTC were obtained for BRICS countries from the GBD study 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to examine the trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2021. The APC model was utilized to assess the age, period, and birth cohort effects on the changes in GBTC disease burden worldwide and in the BRICS countries during the same time frame. Bayesian APC analysis was used to estimate the future burden.

Results: The increases in incidence and deaths were 101.09% and 74.26%, respectively, compared with 1990. The ASMRs in Brazil, Russia, and China decreased, while those in India and South Africa increased. Among the BRICS countries, in most age groups in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa, the crude incidence and mortality rates in women were higher than those in men, whereas in China, the situation was the opposite. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that from 1990 to 2021, the overall ASIR of gallbladder and bile duct cancer exhibited a declining trend. Although the incidence rate in China showed an increasing trend, the mortality rate exhibited a declining trend, which became more pronounced over time.

Conclusion: In BRICS countries, the number of incident cases and deaths from GBTC increased between 1990 and 2021, primarily due to rapid population growth. Nevertheless, the ASIR and ASMR declined during the same period.