Prediction of antipsychotic medication inception in antipsychotic-naive youth at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Background: Antipsychotic (AP) medication in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is not routinely recommended by clinical guidelines but is commonly prescribed. Since little is known about the predictors of AP inception in CHR-P, we analyzed data from two observational cohorts.

Methods: To avoid baseline predictors being confounded by previous treatment, participants were selected for analysis from the 764 participants at CHR-P enrolled in NAPLS-2 and the 710 enrolled in NAPLS-3 by excluding those with lifetime histories of AP use. Baseline clinical variables available in both studies were employed as predictors of subsequent AP inception over the next 6 months in univariable and multivariable analyses.

Results: Preliminary analyses indicated no important effects of sample. The final combined population included 79 AP inception participants and 580 participants who did not have AP inception. The AP medications most commonly prescribed were risperidone, aripiprazole, and quetiapine. Univariable analyses identified seven significant predictors of AP inception. The final logistic regression model including these variables was highly significant (χ² = 36.53, df = 7, p = <0.001). Three variables (current major depression, fewer education years, and current benzodiazepine use) emerged as significant independent predictors of AP inception.

Conclusion: This study is the first to determine baseline characteristics that predict subsequent AP initiation in CHR-P. Some AP use in CHR-P appears to be intended as augmentation of antidepressant treatment for comorbid major depression. Some prescribers may not have detected the attenuated positive symptoms characteristic of CHR-P since their severity did not significantly predict AP inception.