Assessing the burden and trends of pancreatitis in India from 1990-2021: An analysis of the global burden of disease database.

Background and aim: Pancreatitis poses a growing health concern globally, yet its burden in India has not been comprehensively assessed over time. This study aimed to quantify the national and sub-national trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability burden of pancreatitis in India from 1990 to 2021, using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data.

Methods: Data on six core indicators: incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted from the GBD database. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 population were analyzed across 31 Indian states and union territories. Trends were evaluated by age, sex and region.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, incident cases rose from 229,614 (95% UI: 190,053-274,618) to 523,074 (95% UI: 435,284-625,178) and prevalence rose from 249,067 (95% UI: 169,900-342,317) to 547,618 (95% UI: 369,410-750,696). The age-standardized incidence rate increased modestly from 32.78 (95% UI: 27.25-38.72) to 36.76 (95% UI: 30.52-43.44), while the prevalence rate rose from 37.83 (95% UI: 25.53-51.76) to 39.70 (95% UI: 26.84-54.45). The ASR for deaths declined from 2.24 (95% UI: 1.57-3.12) to 1.71 (95% UI: 1.27-2.25) and the DALY rate from 77.69 (95% UI: 57.42-111.80) to 56.82 (95% UI: 43.50-73.46). Male ASRs remained consistently higher than female. Higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) states showed increased YLDs and reduced premature mortality.

Conclusion: The pancreatitis burden in India has increased substantially, with notable regional and sex-based differences. These findings point out the need for early diagnosis, targeted interventions in high-burden states and improved outpatient care to manage chronic morbidity.