Burden trends and risk factors for prostate cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Objectives: Prostate cancer (PCa) is one of the most common malignancies in males worldwide. Therefore, conducting the latest and comprehensive assessment of PCa is important.

Research design and methods: Average annual percent change for age-standardized rate trend was calculated by Joinpoint. Pearson correlation analyzed the relationship between PCa and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Causal associations of risk factors were examined by two-sample mendelian randomization. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict incidence trends to 2050.

Results: In 2021, the global incidence of PCa was 1,324,383, an increase of 161.53% since 1990. It was mainly concentrated in the age group of 65-79. From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence and prevalence increased slightly. PCa was more common in regions with a high SDI. Mortality was the highest in regions with a low SDI. Smoking and telomere length were found to be risk factors for PCa, and diet low in calcium and milk was also related to PCa. The prediction results revealed that the incidence of PCa will slightly decrease in the future.

Conclusions: The disease burden of PCa gradually increased from 1990 to 2021. There were significant differences across countries, SDI regions, and age groups. By 2050, the incidence of this disease is expected to decrease.