Modeling the Effects of Temperature and Resource Quality on the Outcome of Competition Between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the Resulting Risk of Vector-Borne Disease.

The community composition of vectors and hosts plays a critical role in determining risk of vector-borne disease transmission. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, two mosquito species that both transmit the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, share habitat requirements and compete for resources at the larval stage. Ae. albopictus is generally considered a better competitor under many conditions, while Ae. aegypti is able to tolerate higher temperatures and is generally a more competent vector for many pathogens. We develop a stage-structured ordinary differential equation model that incorporates competition between the juvenile stages of two mosquito populations. We incorporate experimental constraints on competition coefficients for high and low quality food resources and explore differences in the potential outcomes of competition. We then incorporate temperature-dependent fecundity rates, juvenile development rates, and adult mortality rates for each species, and we explore competition outcomes as a function of temperature. We show that regions of coexistence and competitive exclusion depend on food quality and relative values of temperature-dependent life history parameters. Finally, we investigate the combined impacts of temperature and competition on the potential for dengue transmission, and we discuss our results in the context of present and future risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.