Nanxi Hu, Hui Li, Kaili Yu, Yang Yu, Xiaohua Wu, Xinyi Huang, Hongtao Lin, Shuqing Zou, Jinluan Li
{"title":"40岁以上职业致癌物暴露导致癌症的全球负担、预测和不平等分析","authors":"Nanxi Hu, Hui Li, Kaili Yu, Yang Yu, Xiaohua Wu, Xinyi Huang, Hongtao Lin, Shuqing Zou, Jinluan Li","doi":"10.1002/cam4.71213","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background</h3>\n \n <p>In this study, we investigated the global burden, projection, and inequalities of cancer attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure in individuals aged over 40 years.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 dataset, we examined age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASR-DALYs) and deaths associated with cancer attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure. Statistical analyses included: the estimated Annual Percentage Change to assess trends (1990–2021); Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling for projections to 2030 and 2050; decomposition analysis to quantify contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes; and slope and concentration indices (SII, CI) to evaluate health inequalities by sociodemographic index (SDI).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>In 2021, the global ASR-DALYs attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure were 239.3 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 180.76–300.91), with significant declines found since 1990. The ASR-deaths in the same year were 11.45 per 100,000 (95% UI: 8.57–14.29). By 2050, ASR-DALYs and ASR-deaths are projected to decline to 177.24 and 8.50 per 100,000, respectively. Men exhibited higher DALYs and mortality (3.92 million DALYs, 0.18 million deaths) compared with women. From 1990 to 2021, high SDI regions exhibited the most substantial decline, whereas low-middle SDI regions experienced the highest increase. The most prominent occupational carcinogens were asbestos (ASR-DALYs: 142.36 per 100,000), silica (50.36 per 100,000), and diesel engine exhaust (20.56 per 100,000). Among the seven types of occupational cancers observe, tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers exhibited the highest ASR-DALY and ASR-deaths. Population growth is the primary contributor to both DALYs and deaths globally, followed by epidemiological changes.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusion</h3>\n \n <p>This study highlights the declining global burden of cancer due to occupational exposure to carcinogens; however, significant disparities persist. Addressing occupational cancer risk in low-SDI regions and under-researched populations is crucial for reducing this health burden.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":139,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Medicine","volume":"14 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cam4.71213","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global Burden, Projection, and Inequalities Analysis of Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogen Exposure in Individuals Aged Over 40 Years\",\"authors\":\"Nanxi Hu, Hui Li, Kaili Yu, Yang Yu, Xiaohua Wu, Xinyi Huang, Hongtao Lin, Shuqing Zou, Jinluan Li\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/cam4.71213\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Background</h3>\\n \\n <p>In this study, we investigated the global burden, projection, and inequalities of cancer attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure in individuals aged over 40 years.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 dataset, we examined age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASR-DALYs) and deaths associated with cancer attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure. Statistical analyses included: the estimated Annual Percentage Change to assess trends (1990–2021); Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling for projections to 2030 and 2050; decomposition analysis to quantify contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes; and slope and concentration indices (SII, CI) to evaluate health inequalities by sociodemographic index (SDI).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>In 2021, the global ASR-DALYs attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure were 239.3 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 180.76–300.91), with significant declines found since 1990. The ASR-deaths in the same year were 11.45 per 100,000 (95% UI: 8.57–14.29). By 2050, ASR-DALYs and ASR-deaths are projected to decline to 177.24 and 8.50 per 100,000, respectively. Men exhibited higher DALYs and mortality (3.92 million DALYs, 0.18 million deaths) compared with women. From 1990 to 2021, high SDI regions exhibited the most substantial decline, whereas low-middle SDI regions experienced the highest increase. The most prominent occupational carcinogens were asbestos (ASR-DALYs: 142.36 per 100,000), silica (50.36 per 100,000), and diesel engine exhaust (20.56 per 100,000). Among the seven types of occupational cancers observe, tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers exhibited the highest ASR-DALY and ASR-deaths. Population growth is the primary contributor to both DALYs and deaths globally, followed by epidemiological changes.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusion</h3>\\n \\n <p>This study highlights the declining global burden of cancer due to occupational exposure to carcinogens; however, significant disparities persist. 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Global Burden, Projection, and Inequalities Analysis of Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogen Exposure in Individuals Aged Over 40 Years
Background
In this study, we investigated the global burden, projection, and inequalities of cancer attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure in individuals aged over 40 years.
Methods
Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 dataset, we examined age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASR-DALYs) and deaths associated with cancer attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure. Statistical analyses included: the estimated Annual Percentage Change to assess trends (1990–2021); Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling for projections to 2030 and 2050; decomposition analysis to quantify contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes; and slope and concentration indices (SII, CI) to evaluate health inequalities by sociodemographic index (SDI).
Results
In 2021, the global ASR-DALYs attributable to occupational carcinogen exposure were 239.3 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 180.76–300.91), with significant declines found since 1990. The ASR-deaths in the same year were 11.45 per 100,000 (95% UI: 8.57–14.29). By 2050, ASR-DALYs and ASR-deaths are projected to decline to 177.24 and 8.50 per 100,000, respectively. Men exhibited higher DALYs and mortality (3.92 million DALYs, 0.18 million deaths) compared with women. From 1990 to 2021, high SDI regions exhibited the most substantial decline, whereas low-middle SDI regions experienced the highest increase. The most prominent occupational carcinogens were asbestos (ASR-DALYs: 142.36 per 100,000), silica (50.36 per 100,000), and diesel engine exhaust (20.56 per 100,000). Among the seven types of occupational cancers observe, tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers exhibited the highest ASR-DALY and ASR-deaths. Population growth is the primary contributor to both DALYs and deaths globally, followed by epidemiological changes.
Conclusion
This study highlights the declining global burden of cancer due to occupational exposure to carcinogens; however, significant disparities persist. Addressing occupational cancer risk in low-SDI regions and under-researched populations is crucial for reducing this health burden.
期刊介绍：
Cancer Medicine is a peer-reviewed, open access, interdisciplinary journal providing rapid publication of research from global biomedical researchers across the cancer sciences. The journal will consider submissions from all oncologic specialties, including, but not limited to, the following areas:
Clinical Cancer Research
Translational research ∙ clinical trials ∙ chemotherapy ∙ radiation therapy ∙ surgical therapy ∙ clinical observations ∙ clinical guidelines ∙ genetic consultation ∙ ethical considerations
Cancer Biology:
Molecular biology ∙ cellular biology ∙ molecular genetics ∙ genomics ∙ immunology ∙ epigenetics ∙ metabolic studies ∙ proteomics ∙ cytopathology ∙ carcinogenesis ∙ drug discovery and delivery.
Cancer Prevention:
Behavioral science ∙ psychosocial studies ∙ screening ∙ nutrition ∙ epidemiology and prevention ∙ community outreach.
Bioinformatics:
Gene expressions profiles ∙ gene regulation networks ∙ genome bioinformatics ∙ pathwayanalysis ∙ prognostic biomarkers.
Cancer Medicine publishes original research articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and research methods papers, along with invited editorials and commentaries. Original research papers must report well-conducted research with conclusions supported by the data presented in the paper.
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