从蒙德样大极小期恢复太阳周期:通过太阳发电机模拟量化必要的极通量阈值

IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
Chitradeep Saha, Sanghita Chandra, Dibyendu Nandy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

太阳黑子的11年周期在更长的时间尺度上经历幅度调制。作为太阳活动长期调制的一部分,十年节律偶尔会中断,在几十年里观测到很少的太阳黑子的静止阶段。这些事件被称为太阳极小期。利用太阳发电机模拟对太阳磁活动替代指标的观测表明,在这些极小期,大尺度太阳极场变得非常微弱,极场反转暂时停止。最终,随着足够的极通量的积累,极性反转和规律的周期活动被认为会恢复。利用随机强迫的千年发电机模拟,我们量化了恢复全球太阳极性反转和超越大极小期所需的极通量阈值。我们发现极小期的持续时间与开始率无关,也不影响恢复率。我们的结果提出了一种预测太阳从极小期恢复的方法。然而,基于我们的方法,我们不能确定信号进入大极小期的具体前兆-这意味着预测大极小期的开始仍然是一个突出的挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-Like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold Through Solar Dynamo Simulations

The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergoes amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over multiple decades. These episodes are termed as solar grand minima. Observation of solar magnetic activity proxies complemented by solar dynamo simulations suggests that the large-scale solar polar fields become very weak during these minima phases with a temporary halt in the polar field reversal. Eventually, with the accumulation of sufficient polar fluxes, the polarity reversal and regular cyclic activity is thought to resume, Using multi-millennial dynamo simulations with stochastic forcing, we quantify the polar flux threshold necessary to recover global solar polarity reversal and surmount grand minima phases. We find that the duration of a grand minimum is independent of the onset rate and does not affect the recovery rate. Our results suggest a method to forecast the Sun’s recovery from a grand minima phase. However, based on our approach, we could not identify specific precursors that signal entry in to a grand minima phase – implying that predicting the onset of grand minima remains an outstanding challenge.

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来源期刊
Solar Physics
Solar Physics 地学天文-天文与天体物理
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
17.90%
发文量
146
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.
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