{"title":"从蒙德样大极小期恢复太阳周期:通过太阳发电机模拟量化必要的极通量阈值","authors":"Chitradeep Saha, Sanghita Chandra, Dibyendu Nandy","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02538-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergoes amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over multiple decades. These episodes are termed as solar grand minima. Observation of solar magnetic activity proxies complemented by solar dynamo simulations suggests that the large-scale solar polar fields become very weak during these minima phases with a temporary halt in the polar field reversal. Eventually, with the accumulation of sufficient polar fluxes, the polarity reversal and regular cyclic activity is thought to resume, Using multi-millennial dynamo simulations with stochastic forcing, we quantify the polar flux threshold necessary to recover global solar polarity reversal and surmount grand minima phases. We find that the duration of a grand minimum is independent of the onset rate and does not affect the recovery rate. Our results suggest a method to forecast the Sun’s recovery from a grand minima phase. However, based on our approach, we could not identify specific precursors that signal entry in to a grand minima phase – implying that predicting the onset of grand minima remains an outstanding challenge.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-Like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold Through Solar Dynamo Simulations\",\"authors\":\"Chitradeep Saha, Sanghita Chandra, Dibyendu Nandy\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11207-025-02538-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergoes amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over multiple decades. These episodes are termed as solar grand minima. Observation of solar magnetic activity proxies complemented by solar dynamo simulations suggests that the large-scale solar polar fields become very weak during these minima phases with a temporary halt in the polar field reversal. Eventually, with the accumulation of sufficient polar fluxes, the polarity reversal and regular cyclic activity is thought to resume, Using multi-millennial dynamo simulations with stochastic forcing, we quantify the polar flux threshold necessary to recover global solar polarity reversal and surmount grand minima phases. We find that the duration of a grand minimum is independent of the onset rate and does not affect the recovery rate. Our results suggest a method to forecast the Sun’s recovery from a grand minima phase. However, based on our approach, we could not identify specific precursors that signal entry in to a grand minima phase – implying that predicting the onset of grand minima remains an outstanding challenge.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":777,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Solar Physics\",\"volume\":\"300 9\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Solar Physics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-025-02538-5\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Solar Physics","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-025-02538-5","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-Like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold Through Solar Dynamo Simulations
The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergoes amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over multiple decades. These episodes are termed as solar grand minima. Observation of solar magnetic activity proxies complemented by solar dynamo simulations suggests that the large-scale solar polar fields become very weak during these minima phases with a temporary halt in the polar field reversal. Eventually, with the accumulation of sufficient polar fluxes, the polarity reversal and regular cyclic activity is thought to resume, Using multi-millennial dynamo simulations with stochastic forcing, we quantify the polar flux threshold necessary to recover global solar polarity reversal and surmount grand minima phases. We find that the duration of a grand minimum is independent of the onset rate and does not affect the recovery rate. Our results suggest a method to forecast the Sun’s recovery from a grand minima phase. However, based on our approach, we could not identify specific precursors that signal entry in to a grand minima phase – implying that predicting the onset of grand minima remains an outstanding challenge.
期刊介绍:
Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.