Optimized MaxEnt modeling reveals major decline and shift of giant panda habitat under CMIP6 ensemble projections

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) faces severe habitat loss and fragmentation due to climate change, necessitating predictive modeling to inform future conservation strategies. This study employed an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, combined with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble mean (MME), to project shifts in suitable giant panda habitat across all major mountain ranges for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Our models demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.876, TSS = 0.734), with the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, temperature annual range, and mean diurnal range identified as the dominant environmental variables (cumulative permutation importance = 72.4 %). Projections reveal a dramatic decline in habitat area, with total suitable habitat shrinking by up to 52.49 % under the highest-emission SSP585 scenario by the 2090s. The centroid of suitable habitat is projected to shift northwestward by up to 106 km and upward in elevation by up to 2599 m, moving into regions currently outside the existing protected area network. These findings underscore the potential inadequacy of the current conservation framework in addressing future climate change impacts. We recommend establishing new protected areas in the identified northwestern climate refugia and restoring climate-resilient corridors to connect deteriorating eastern habitats with more stable western refugia. This study provides a scientific basis for revising giant panda conservation policies to proactively address the impacts of climate change.