Urban growth dynamics in Zimbabwe: Implications for policy and planning

Acute shortages of public infrastructure in Southern African cities are primarily driven by rapid urbanisation. This paper assesses urbanisation trends in Zimbabwe and their implications for urban planning and policy. Using data from the Global Human Settlements Urban Centre Database 2015, it systematically analyses 40 years of urban growth patterns, focusing on the extent of compact versus sprawl development. The main findings reveal that urbanisation levels continue to rise while urban growth rates have slowed. The number of cities increased significantly from 10 (1975) to 33 (2015), with small cities experiencing the fastest growth associated with overcrowded and unplanned settlements. National urban density declined from 1975 to 2000 before a slight rebound in 2015. Although experiences differed across cities, small cities had the highest densities, particularly those with built-up areas under one square kilometre. Despite a general trend toward sprawl, some cities exhibit more contained growth. Population projections suggest that Harare will maintain its primacy, with Chitungwiza becoming the second-largest city by 2050. These trends indicate the need for city-specific policies that promote compact development, integrating land use planning and infrastructure investments that support sustainable urban development.