关于两种环境下热容变化的容塑性权衡假设的检验

IF 2.9 2区 生物学 Q2 BIOLOGY
Mauro Santos , José F. Fontanari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

世界正在迅速变暖,威胁着世界上大部分生物群的灭绝。热耐受性可塑性被吹捧为对抗全球变暖的重要缓冲。耐温-塑性权衡假说(TOH)认为,适应高温的变温动物是以有限的可塑性为代价来进一步提高其耐热性的。经验证据是混合的,不一致可能是由于由虚假相关性引起的统计伪影。这种缺乏共识是有问题的,因为准确评估TOH对于估计已经接近其生理上限的变温动物的热塑性缓冲能力至关重要。在这项研究中,我们证明了在评估TOH时,通过两种环境的热耐受性变化在种内水平上测量的统计偏差已经解决的方式是错误的。这是因为在两种环境的实验中,从来没有对权衡或缺乏权衡的统计可靠的预测,考虑到这种预测在这个领域的重要性,这是令人惊讶的。在这里,我们推导了一个统计框架来正确地检验观察到的热容变化与TOH预测一致的假设。为了证明我们的方法如何改变TOH的结论和解释,我们将其应用于两个现有的数据集。我们表明TOH可能确实是有效的,尽管之前的说法相反,强调了一个健全的统计方法的关键重要性,以避免虚假的结论,可能对我们对气候变化响应的理解产生重大影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On testing the tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis as the change of thermal tolerance across two environments
The world is warming rapidly, threatening the extinction of much of the world's biota. Thermal tolerance plasticity has been touted as an important buffer against global warming. The temperature tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis (TOH) posits that ectotherms who have adapted to high temperatures have done so at the expense of having limited plasticity to further improve their heat tolerance. Empirical evidence is mixed and inconsistencies may arise due to statistical artefacts caused by spurious correlations. This lack of consensus is problematic because an accurate evaluation of the TOH is crucial for estimating the buffering capacity of thermal plasticity in ectotherms that already live close to their upper physiological thermal limits. In this study, we demonstrate that the manner in which the statistical bias has been addressed when evaluating the TOH, as measured at the intraspecific level by the change in thermal tolerance across two environments, is erroneous. This is because there has never been a statistically robust prediction for either a trade-off or a lack of trade-off in two-environment experiments, which is surprising given the importance of such predictions in this field. Here, we derive a statistical framework to correctly test the hypothesis that the observed change in thermal tolerance is consistent with TOH predictions. To demonstrate how our approach can alter the conclusions and interpretations of the TOH, we apply it to two existing datasets. We show that the TOH may indeed be valid, despite previous claims to the contrary, highlighting the critical importance of a sound statistical approach to avoid spurious conclusions that can have significant implications for our understanding of climate change responses.
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来源期刊
Journal of thermal biology
Journal of thermal biology 生物-动物学
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
7.40%
发文量
196
审稿时长
14.5 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Thermal Biology publishes articles that advance our knowledge on the ways and mechanisms through which temperature affects man and animals. This includes studies of their responses to these effects and on the ecological consequences. Directly relevant to this theme are: • The mechanisms of thermal limitation, heat and cold injury, and the resistance of organisms to extremes of temperature • The mechanisms involved in acclimation, acclimatization and evolutionary adaptation to temperature • Mechanisms underlying the patterns of hibernation, torpor, dormancy, aestivation and diapause • Effects of temperature on reproduction and development, growth, ageing and life-span • Studies on modelling heat transfer between organisms and their environment • The contributions of temperature to effects of climate change on animal species and man • Studies of conservation biology and physiology related to temperature • Behavioural and physiological regulation of body temperature including its pathophysiology and fever • Medical applications of hypo- and hyperthermia Article types: • Original articles • Review articles
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