Prediction of suitable areas for Prunus serrulata Lindl. in the context of future climate change

Global climate change profoundly reshapes species distribution patterns. Prunus serrulata Lindl., a critically important ornamental species in China with high economic and aesthetic value, serves as an ideal model to assess such impacts. Species distribution modeling has become a key tool to evaluate the potential distribution of species under climate change. Here, using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model validated by a high AUC value (0.938), we integrated 127 occurrence records and 13 environmental variables to project its current and future distribution under four CMIP6 scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585). The results showed that the five factors of driest monthly precipitation (Bio14, 32.5 % contribution), wettest monthly precipitation (Bio13, 18.4 %), coldest monthly minimum temperature (Bio6, 18.2 %), elevation (elev, 13.1 %), and isothermality (Bio3, 3.9 %) were the dominant factors affecting the distribution of P. serrulata. Currently, high-suitability areas (526,500 km², 5 % of China) are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Future projections indicate a 5–15 % expansion of high-suitability areas by 2041–2060, peaking under SSP585 scenario, while the distribution centroids shift northeastward by 220–300 km, suggesting potential relocation of the cultivation zone. This method provides a scientific basis for introducing and preserving germplasm, cultivating P. serrulata, optimizing bud dormancy garden layouts, enhancing the ecological benefits of urban vegetation, and increasing the aesthetic appeal of ornamental features.