Provincial P-Electricity CEF accounting and inter-regional coordinated emission reduction in cooperative game theory——Evidence from China (2010–2022)

In advancing “the dual-control policy on total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity (abbreviated as the Dual Carbon Control Policy)”, China's power sector faces two major challenges. First, the accounting of carbon emissions per unit of electricity production for regional carbon reduction remains inaccurate, making it difficult to precisely reflect the carbon efficiency of regional electricity production. Second, the presence of spillover effects hinders the implementation of certain effective carbon reduction measures, thereby constraining the overall improvement of carbon efficiency. To address the first challenge, we conduct the provincial electricity carbon emission factor from the production perspective (abbreviated as P-Electricity CEF). To tackle the second challenge, we propose a spatiotemporal agglomeration analysis method that integrates the quadrant method with spatial techniques, aiming to uncover the impact of inter-regional electricity flows and their scale effects on carbon efficiency. Additionally, a spatial econometric model is employed to identify spillover effects and influencing factors. Furthermore, a cooperative game model is constructed to internalize spillover effects, balancing the interests of different stakeholders, and facilitating inter-regional coordinated emission reduction. Empirical results of provincial P-Electricity CEF in China from 2010 to 2022 reveal the following findings: (1) Accounting for the full-account P-Electricity CEF provides a more accurate representation of regional carbon efficiency in the power sector, and better supporting production-side emission reduction efforts. The calculated results are slightly higher than previously published findings but exhibit an overall downward trend, with a decline of approximately 20 %. (2) Scale effects influence variations in electricity production carbon efficiency and show significant spatial agglomeration characteristics. (3) Energy structure, general industrial and commercial electricity price, electricity price for large industry, scale effect, electricity price for residents, and economic level, affect electricity production carbon efficiency, with the first four factors exhibiting significant spillover effects. (4) Achieving inter-regional coordinated emission reduction requires careful consideration of spillover effects, influencing factors, and the balance of multi-party interests, for which a cooperative game approach offers a viable solution.