An improved quick predictive model for earthquake-induced landslide movement based on energy conservation: A case study

Landslides triggered by near-fault ground motions generally result in heavy casualties, large economic losses and severe ecological damage. Evaluating and predicting the characteristics of landslide movement while considering near-fault ground motion is crucial for disaster prevention and reduction. An improved quick predictive model for earthquake-induced landslide movement (ELQA) was constructed on the basis of energy conservation. The velocity of the centroid was taken as the control value, and an empirical formula for the strength degradation of the slide mass was used. Dynamic coordination between movement characteristics and strength degradation was achieved. In addition, taking the Donghekou landslide and the unstable Outang slope as examples, the improved model was used to analyze the high-speed, long-runout movement mechanism of the landslide and predict unstable slope movement. The results revealed that the Donghekou slope remained stable during the initial stage of an earthquake and then became unstable after approximately 6 s of ground motion. It rapidly moved at a maximum velocity of 50 m/s, with the movement distance exceeding 2500 m. The movement process of the Outang slope lasted approximately 60 s. The back edge of the landslide essentially did not move, whereas the moving part of the sliding mass always maintained a certain integrity. The peak velocity of the landslide exceeded 40 m/s, causing it to move rapidly over a considerable distance, endangering the residential buildings on the opposite bank. The results offer effective suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction related to production and living in earthquake-prone areas.