{"title":"消费者信心指标衡量的是什么?","authors":"Matti Sarkia","doi":"10.1016/j.shpsa.2025.07.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper discusses the status of consumer sentiment indicators in macroeconomic forecasting, and argues that economists have been ambivalent between several different interpretations of the cognitive ontology of consumer sentiment: deflationism (motivated by an emphasis on economic fundamentals or rational expectations), doxastic realism (motivated by the ideas of privileged epistemic access and wisdom of the masses), and affective realism (motivated by the idea of animal spirits and willingness to spend as causal forces for the economy). These different psychological interpretations of consumer sentiment are argued to have implications for economic policy and macroeconomic forecasting owing to their contrasting assumptions about the mechanisms by which consumers acquire their views about the economy, and the ways in which their attitudes influence private consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49467,"journal":{"name":"Studies in History and Philosophy of Science","volume":"113 ","pages":"Pages 74-84"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What are consumer sentiment indicators a measure of?\",\"authors\":\"Matti Sarkia\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.shpsa.2025.07.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This paper discusses the status of consumer sentiment indicators in macroeconomic forecasting, and argues that economists have been ambivalent between several different interpretations of the cognitive ontology of consumer sentiment: deflationism (motivated by an emphasis on economic fundamentals or rational expectations), doxastic realism (motivated by the ideas of privileged epistemic access and wisdom of the masses), and affective realism (motivated by the idea of animal spirits and willingness to spend as causal forces for the economy). These different psychological interpretations of consumer sentiment are argued to have implications for economic policy and macroeconomic forecasting owing to their contrasting assumptions about the mechanisms by which consumers acquire their views about the economy, and the ways in which their attitudes influence private consumption.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49467,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Studies in History and Philosophy of Science\",\"volume\":\"113 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 74-84\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Studies in History and Philosophy of Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"98\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0039368125000822\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"哲学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Studies in History and Philosophy of Science","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0039368125000822","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
What are consumer sentiment indicators a measure of?
This paper discusses the status of consumer sentiment indicators in macroeconomic forecasting, and argues that economists have been ambivalent between several different interpretations of the cognitive ontology of consumer sentiment: deflationism (motivated by an emphasis on economic fundamentals or rational expectations), doxastic realism (motivated by the ideas of privileged epistemic access and wisdom of the masses), and affective realism (motivated by the idea of animal spirits and willingness to spend as causal forces for the economy). These different psychological interpretations of consumer sentiment are argued to have implications for economic policy and macroeconomic forecasting owing to their contrasting assumptions about the mechanisms by which consumers acquire their views about the economy, and the ways in which their attitudes influence private consumption.
期刊介绍:
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science is devoted to the integrated study of the history, philosophy and sociology of the sciences. The editors encourage contributions both in the long-established areas of the history of the sciences and the philosophy of the sciences and in the topical areas of historiography of the sciences, the sciences in relation to gender, culture and society and the sciences in relation to arts. The Journal is international in scope and content and publishes papers from a wide range of countries and cultural traditions.