Spatial life cycle assessment and technoeconomic analysis of industrial heat pumps in the United States

Industrial heat pumps are a promising decarbonization solution for low-temperature manufacturing processes. However, their environmental and economic performance varies significantly across regions, requiring a thorough assessment. This study compares the environmental performance of an industrial hot water heat pump with a natural gas boiler using a consequential life cycle assessment. Impacts are compared across 25 electricity market module regions in the U.S. over a 20-year period. Additionally, a techno-economic analysis compares the levelized cost of avoided carbon for industrial heat pumps across the US. The levelized cost of heat for heat pumps is also compared against natural gas boilers for the modeled thermal load. In some subregions, switching from natural gas boilers to heat pumps can reduce global warming potential by up to 95 % (from 86 kg CO₂-eq) and ozone depletion potential up to 89 % (from 9.82 × 10⁻⁶ kg CFC-11-eq) per GJ of heat delivered. Using ammonia as a refrigerant also results in 9 times lower global warming potential at the end-of-life phase when compared to an R134a using heat pump. The techno-economic analysis shows Maryland, Delaware and Washington offer lowest levelized costs due to low electricity to natural gas cost ratios. Sensitivity analysis shows that the results for the techno-economic analysis are the most sensitive to coefficient of performance followed by the costs of natural gas and electricity. The findings support the strategic deployment of industrial heat pumps in regions where there is an overlap in environmental and economic benefits, such as Washington, New Mexico and New York.