Priority conservation zoning for future karst areas based on the construction of a multi-perspective ecological security pattern

In the process of urbanization, human activities have caused significant changes in land use, posing serious threats to ecosystems. Issues such as habitat fragmentation and reduced structural connectivity hinder regional sustainability. The vulnerability of karst areas exacerbates these impacts. Effectively managing the human-environment relationship in karst regions is crucial for maintaining ecological security, currently a focal point of research. Scientific prediction and rational construction of future ecological networks are key to enhancing regional ecological security. Taking Guizhou Province, the central area of southern Chinese karst, as an example, this study utilizes CA-Markov modeling to forecast future (by 2030) land use conditions. On this basis, we constructed the ecological network of Guizhou Province from the perspectives of morphology, habitat quality analysis, and integration. We compared the differences between the networks generated from different perspectives. Finally, we delineated priority protection areas and proposed corresponding protection recommendations. Results indicate an increasing trend in arable land, water bodies, and urban residential land by 2030, with arable land showing the largest change, increasing by 2.79 %, primarily due to conversions from forest land, grassland, and urban land. Using habitat quality, 254 source points are selected, while 191 are selected using MSPA, with an overlap of 106 source points. In highly urbanized areas, source points are predominantly located on administrative boundaries. Corridor construction results indicate variations in certain characteristics between different perspectives but generally show an eastern bias. Corridors overlapped across the three perspectives total 23,578 km. In regions characterized by high human activity in central and western areas, networks constructed based on habitat quality exhibit a more fragmented and isolated spatial pattern compared to those based on morphological criteria. Based on these findings, priority ecological restoration areas are categorized into ecological protection, restoration, and auxiliary regeneration areas, each with corresponding restoration recommendations. This research contributes to understanding the future ecological security patterns in karst regions, providing a scientific basis for biodiversity conservation and ecological environment security in karst areas.