Exploring the potential of novel research proposals as signals of successful national R&D: A case study on energy and resource sector in South Korea

The success of national R&D projects plays a vital role in sustaining the long-term growth of the domestic techno-economic system and strengthening the innovation capacity of the national innovation system. While successful R&D projects are often characterized by ex-post (e.g., significant R&D performance) and ex-ante (e.g., novel research content) factors, their empirical relationship remains unclear. This study quantitatively examines whether the novelty of research proposals serves as a potential indicator of successful national R&D. Using a transformer-based language model and a local outlier factor, we measure the semantic novelty of research proposals by measuring their differentiation from existing paradigms. We conduct a statistical analysis to examine how the novelty of research proposals moderates the effects of R&D investment on R&D performance. A case study of 12,243 research proposals in South Korea’s energy and resource sector shows that the proposed novelty indicator exhibits a statistically significant association with both R&D investment and performance levels. We also show that novelty positively moderates the relationship between R&D investment and performance. The empirical results are expected to provide insights into understanding successful national R&D projects by revealing the relationships between novel research proposals, R&D investment, and performance in various contexts. The proposed approach and its systematic process are expected to guide experts in continuously monitoring national R&D trends and evaluating research proposals in the era of open innovation.