Modern cadastral systems and sustainable land management in secondary cities: a geospatial performance assessment from Bale Robe, Ethiopia

Rapid urbanization in secondary African cities intensifies pressures on land management, yet evidence gaps persist on how modern cadastral systems mitigate tenure insecurity and ecological degradation. This study addresses this through an integrated assessment of Bale Robe, Ethiopia, a high-growth city (21.75 % population increase, 2020–2024) experiencing escalating land conflicts and agricultural fragmentation. Employing the European Foundation for Quality Management Excellence Model within a mixed-methods framework, the study triangulates geospatial analysis (Landsat 8 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Arc-based Geographic Information System), Inferential Statistics, and stakeholder insights (121 surveys, 25 Focus Group Discussions, 20 interviews) across 13 Kebeles. The results show that only five out of the 13 areas in Bale Robe use modern technology to manage land, which means only 14.07 % of the city, is covered. Non-covered kebeles experienced 1689 land disputes and 15.2 % informal settlement expansion (2020–2024), driving 2.42 % agricultural loss, while in covered areas land records are more accurate, land disputes are fewer, and land use planning is better. These findings demonstrate how fragmented cadastral coverage perpetuates institutional voids, escalating conflict risk in uncovered zones. This study advances a replicable model linking cadastral reform, conflict resolution, and environmental sustainability in African secondary cities.