Spatiotemporal dynamics and planning responses to address carbon balance and land-use mixtures in megacities: A case study of Wuhan, China

Cities undergoing rapid urbanization often experience complex land-use changes that impact the ecological environment and significantly influence the carbon balance. Investigating how carbon balance interacts with land-use mixture is vital for guiding effective land resource management and promoting low-carbon development. Wuhan, as an industrial megacity in central China, faces the challenge of shifting toward green and low-carbon growth. This research aims to measure and track the evolution of carbon sinks, carbon emissions, and land-use mixture from 2000 to 2020, while analyzing their spatial clustering patterns. It also integrates landscape pattern metrics and ecosystem services to assess their effects on carbon balance. Based on identified correlations, a dual strategy of reducing emissions and enhancing sinks is proposed. Key findings include: 1) rapid urbanization and the dominance of built-up land lead to significant loss of ecological spaces and carbon sinks, as well as increased carbon emissions 2) contiguous blue-green spaces maintain the highest habitat quality and cooling capacity, which are positively related to carbon sinks; 3) carbon sinks, carbon emissions, and the land-use mixture demonstrate notable spatial clustering; 4) stable correlations exist among these indicators, with land-use mixture weakly negatively correlated with carbon sinks and positively correlated with carbon emissions. This study provides a foundation for managing carbon balance in Wuhan, and offers insights for similar megacities.