Beyond climate: Anthropogenic pressures reshape vampire bat distributions across the neotropics

Vampire bats (Desmodontinae) are ecologically unique and epidemiologically significant neotropical mammals whose macroecological distribution patterns remain poorly understood. While abiotic factors (Grinnellian niche) constrain their fundamental distributions, anthropogenic pressures substantially reshape their realized ranges, with critical implications for human-wildlife conflicts and zoonotic disease transmission. Using a two-step ecological niche modeling approach, we assessed how bioclimatic factors and landscape anthropization jointly determine the distribution of three vampire bat species (Desmodus rotundus, Diaemus youngii, and Diphylla ecaudata). First, we modeled fundamental niches using bioclimatic variables; subsequently, we refined projections by incorporating human footprint and tree cover data. Our results demonstrate that while climate defines the biogeographic boundaries of these species, human activities reconfigure habitat suitability patterns. The incorporation of anthropogenic pressures and land-use data into ecological niche models reveals striking interspecific differences: while generalist species like D. rotundus benefit from anthropogenic expansion, more specialized taxa such as D. youngii and D. ecaudata show likely range contractions. These species-specific responses demonstrate that models based solely on climatic predictors may significantly overestimate both the potential distribution and ecological resilience of disturbance-sensitive species, potentially biasing conservation assessments. These findings carry critical implications for conservation biogeography. Our modeling approach identifies two key spatial categories: (1) persistent refugia (areas maintaining suitability under both climatic and anthropogenic pressures) and (2) climatically suitable regions currently compromised by human activity. This distinction provides actionable insights for conservation planning, informing strategies for habitat protection, restoration priorities, and human-wildlife conflict mitigation. Particularly for data-limited species like D. youngii, where range contraction may be substantially underestimated, the incorporation of anthropogenic variables significantly improves IUCN threat assessments and strengthens regional conservation strategies.