Analysis of the dynamic evolution, regional differences, and influencing factors of green total factor productivity in grain: The case of China

Increasing green total factor productivity of grain (GGTFP) is crucial for overcoming resource and environmental constraints and achieving the SDGs. However, targeted research on GGTFP remains limited. This study employed the global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index method based on the super-SBM function to calculate China's GGTFP from 2003 to 2023, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and regional differences, and explored the influencing factors of GGTFP from the “production-living-ecology” (PLE) functional perspective. Results showed that: (1) China's GGTFP fluctuated upward from 2003 to 2023, driven mainly by green technological change, with a weak “catching-up effect” from technological efficiency. (2) Spatial distribution became more concentrated, and the “convergence effect” within grain functional areas was strengthened. (3) The centers of gravity of GGTFP in China's 31 provinces migrated toward the northwest as a whole, with intensified spatial agglomeration. (4) Regional differences in GGTFP gradually diminished from 2003 to 2023, with transvariation density as the primary source. (5) Ecological function was the dominant influencing factor, followed by production function, which exhibited spatiotemporal heterogeneity and “threshold effects”. Therefore, some policy implications are proposed regarding refined management, intensive utilization, and multi-objective trade-offs and synergies in policy-making. These findings can offer valuable insights into global sustainable grain production, coordinated development of grain functional areas, and food security from the supply side.