大宗商品交易商的系统性风险

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105166

Thorsten Glück , Zeno Adams

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们考察了一家大宗商品交易公司违约后对全球大宗商品流动的破坏。实物商品网络由少数几家大型贸易商经营，这些贸易商负责及时向工业生产提供原材料和投入。我们提出了一个模型来模拟冲击后网络的弹性和响应时间。我们的研究结果表明，许多大宗商品交易者存在重大的系统性风险。在长达12个月的时间里，一个交易员被强制从网络中移除对实物商品的价格和可用性有相当大的影响。

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Systemic risk of commodity traders

We examine the disruptions to global commodity flows following the default of a commodity trading firm. The physical commodity network is operated by a handful of large traders that are responsible for the timely delivery of raw materials and inputs to industrial production. We propose a model to simulate the resilience and response time of the network following a shock. Our results suggest that a number of commodity traders carry significant systemic risk. The forced removal of a trader from the network has considerable implications for the prices and availability of physical commodities over a period up to 12 months.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

10.50%

发文量

199

期刊介绍： The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.