墨西哥司法改革如何助长犯罪:逮捕趋势和信任侵蚀

IF 4.1 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes, Marilyn Ibarra‐Caton
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引用次数: 0

摘要

墨西哥在2000年至2017年期间推行了国家主导的刑事司法改革,以实现程序现代化并改善法治。这些变化是否减少了暴力犯罪,特别是在受贩毒集团影响的地区,仍不确定。目的评估改革实施对杀人和逮捕的影响,并评估与执法能力和公众与执法部门合作有关的机制。材料和方法我们根据死亡证明(凶杀案)和行政记录(逮捕)建立了一个市政年度面板(2000-2017)。由于各州在不同的时间采取了改革,我们使用了为交错采用和异质处理效果而设计的差中差估计器,具有丰富的固定效果和控制。为了探究机制,我们分析了具有全国代表性的犯罪报告、机构信任和感知警察/检察官廉正的调查措施。结果改革的实施与凶杀率增加了25%有关。在同一时期,逮捕率下降了50%。由于凶杀案不像其他犯罪那样容易漏报,凶杀案的增加不太可能是虚假的报告。调查证据显示,犯罪报告减少,对机构的信任度下降,对警察和检察官的负面看法增加;在受卡特尔影响的地区,影响最为严重。这种模式与有效执法能力的削弱是一致的:更少的逮捕和更低的公众合作提高了暴力犯罪的预期回报。在高暴力环境中,改革程序而不同时提高调查和起诉能力,也不保障证人,会削弱威慑力。结论:墨西哥错开的司法改革伴随着更高的谋杀率和更低的逮捕率。暴力背景下的成功改革可能需要协调一致的机构加强(警务、起诉、证人保护),以可衡量的基准分阶段实施,以及维持公众信任和报告的战略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Mexican judicial reforms may have fueled crime: Arrest trends and trust erosion
BackgroundMexico rolled out state‐led criminal justice reforms between 2000 and 2017 to modernize procedures and improve rule of law. Whether these changes reduced violent crime—especially in cartel‐affected areas—remains uncertain.AimsEstimate the impact of reform implementation on homicides and arrests, and assess mechanisms related to enforcement capacity and public cooperation with law enforcement.Materials & MethodsWe build a municipality–year panel (2000–2017) from death certificates (homicides) and administrative records (arrests). Because states adopted reforms at different times, we use difference‐in‐differences estimators designed for staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects, with rich fixed effects and controls. To probe mechanisms, we analyze nationally representative survey measures of crime reporting, institutional trust, and perceived police/prosecutorial integrity.ResultsReform implementation is associated with a ~25% increase in homicide rates. Over the same horizon, arrest rates fall by >50%. As homicides are less prone to underreporting than other crimes, the homicide increase is unlikely to be a reporting artifact. Survey evidence shows reduced crime reporting, declining trust in institutions, and more negative views of police and prosecutors; effects are strongest in cartel‐affected regions.DiscussionThe pattern is consistent with an erosion of effective enforcement capacity at rollout: fewer arrests and lower public cooperation raise expected returns to violent crime. In high‐violence settings, reforms that change procedures without parallel boosts to investigative and prosecutorial capacity—and without safeguards for witnesses—can weaken deterrence.ConclusionMexico’s staggered judicial reforms coincided with higher homicides and sharply lower arrests. Successful reform in violent contexts likely requires coordinated institutional strengthening (policing, prosecution, witness protection), phased implementation with measurable benchmarks, and strategies to sustain public trust and reporting.
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来源期刊
Criminology & Public Policy
Criminology & Public Policy CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
6.50%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Criminology & Public Policy is interdisciplinary in nature, devoted to policy discussions of criminology research findings. Focusing on the study of criminal justice policy and practice, the central objective of the journal is to strengthen the role of research findings in the formulation of crime and justice policy by publishing empirically based, policy focused articles.
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