Predictors of Offense Severity, Adjudication, Incarceration, and Repeat Referrals for Juveniles: A Multi-Cohort Replication Study

Although the number of arrests, court-processed cases, and the number of juveniles detained have dramatically decreased in recent decades, concern about repeat offending remains a persistent challenge. The authors examined predictors of offense severity, judicial disposition (e.g., diversion, prosecution, incarceration), and repeat offending. Data were obtained on 65,064 juveniles born between 1995 and 2002 from the South Carolina Department of Juvenile Justice. White youth in our sample were 1.32 times more likely than Black youth to receive a second referral, boys were 1.51 times more likely than girls to receive a second referral, and youth who were younger at the time of the first referral were slightly more likely receive a second referral. Boys were also more likely than girls to receive a third referral. Youth charged with offenses of higher severity at their first referral and youth adjudicated at first referral were also less likely to receive a third.