Unpacking Outcomes: A quasi-experimental study on the effectiveness of China’s major function-oriented zone planning

The competing demands for land resources among urbanization, food production, and ecological preservation present a critical challenge for sustainable development in developing nations. China’s Major Function-Oriented Zone Planning (MFZP), launched in 2010, represents a pioneering national-scale zoning planning to address these competing interests. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical assessment of MFZP’s effectiveness through a quasi-experimental analysis using county-level panel data from 2000 to 2020. Employing a Propensity Score Matching with Difference-in-Difference approach, we compare land development patterns between restricted and key development zones with similar baseline characteristics. Results demonstrate that MFZP successfully achieved its primary objective: restricted development zones exhibited significantly lower development intensity compared to matched key development zones, without showing significant negative impacts on per capita GDP growth. The effectiveness of the plan implementation varies notably across China’s economic regions and among restricted zones with different functional priorities. These findings validate the feasibility of large-scale spatial planning in balancing development needs and offer evidence-based insights for developing countries seeking to implement similar land-use management strategies.