Cluster and statistical analysis of spatial earthquake patterns in the South Caucasus region

The Caucasus region is characterized by heterogeneous and strong seismicity as a result of collision between Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates. A rich variety of seismic events also distinguishes Azerbaijan, located in its south part. In this research, we consider the earthquakes, specifically spatial earthquake patterns that occurred in Azerbaijan and adjacent areas from 2010 to 2023. Applying density-based clustering algorithms to the earthquake catalog, the proper partitions of spatial earthquake distributions were obtained. The statistical properties of the catalog’s partition into seven clusters are studied in more detail. In particular, we consider the random variable, which is the distance from the fixed point of the earth’s surface to earthquake epicenters. The analytical approximation of the cumulative distribution function is constructed for the case when the fixed point coincides with the cluster center and epicenters in the cluster are distributed by the bivariate normal distribution. For comparison, the numerical distribution functions are evaluated on the basis of Johnson curves and good agreement is observed. Another case is also considered when the fixed point lies outside of a cluster. Under the assumption that a cluster is a circle and epicenters in it are distributed uniformly, the cumulative and probability distribution functions are derived. Applying these functions to the approximation of histograms for the distances from the Shamkir hydroelectric power station to the clusters shows that satisfactory agreement can be achieved. These results are promising for performing the seismic risk assessment for the Shamkir station or other objects of Azerbaijan’s critical infrastructure.