Digitizing the physical prey: A Lotka–Volterra model for knowledge-driven meltdowns in urban building usage

This paper proposes and validates a Lotka–Volterra (LV) meltdown model to explore how digital predation—fueled by occupant knowledge—systematically reduces or “consumes” industrial, office, retail, and housing footprints. In contrast to static land-use frameworks, intangible usage acts as a “predator” expanding at the expense of physical “prey” whenever occupant skills surpass key thresholds. By embedding meltdown fractions with structural anchoring, digital readiness, and vacancy, we capture the concurrent erosion of physical functions and the rise of intangible domains. We calibrate the model using 125 years (1900–2025) of data spanning four major usage categories, showing how occupant knowledge explains historical shifts—such as the collapse of industrial footprints or partial contractions in retail—once tasks migrate online. Forward scenarios to 2100 suggest near-elimination of Industrial usage, severe Retail retrenchment, modest Office reductions, and a stable Housing share. Crucially, partial reallocation accommodates historical building conversions (e.g., repurposed factories) and intangible migrations, demonstrating that digital saturation can drive meltdown flows fully online after mid-century. Although intangible usage never forms a universal “monolith”—thanks to intrinsic model decay—knowledge-driven digitization may drastically accelerate meltdown unless on-site distinctiveness or policy interventions sustain physical categories. By casting occupant knowledge in a Lotka–Volterra predator–prey framework, this study offers a novel lens to interpret and project the fate of physical building stocks amid intensifying digital transformation.