Impact of energy transition policy on energy justice: An effectiveness evaluation and policy learning forecast

With the acceleration of the global energy transition, ensuring a just transition has become a pressing concern. However, empirical studies examining how energy transition policies influence urban energy justice remain limited, particularly in developing countries such as China. This study seeks to address this gap by evaluating the impact of China's New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) policy on urban energy justice. Using panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities spanning 2011 to 2022, we employ the difference-in-differences method for our empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the NEDC policy has greatly enhanced energy justice in pilot cities. Specifically, the policy promotes energy justice by enhancing employment and development opportunities. In terms of employment, the policy facilitates a shift from informal labor to formal employment, which ensures more stable incomes and improved social security for workers. Regarding development, the policy drives industrial upgrading and technological innovation. This not only optimizes industrial structures but also advances new energy technologies by reducing costs and enabling clean energy solutions to expand into township markets, thereby extending the benefits of the energy transition to a broader population. Our analysis of heterogeneity demonstrates that the effect of the policy is significantly stronger in cities that are not reliant on natural resources, as well as in those experiencing fewer fiscal limitations. Moreover, we identify spatial spillover effects that follow an inverted U-shaped pattern, with the strongest impacts observed within a 150–200 km range. Finally, we estimate individual treatment effects at the city level through a policy learning analysis using Lasso and causal forests methods, providing insights into the selection of future pilot cities. By advancing the empirical understanding of energy justice, this paper provides critical observations into the simultaneous pursuit of energy transition and social equity objectives. Additionally, it provides a practical reference for other developing nations in designing inclusive energy transition policies.