Impacts of land cover on surface temperature in a meandering river basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The ongoing replacement of natural vegetation with impervious surfaces, driven by urban expansion and human activity, has led to significant alterations in local microclimates and thermal comfort conditions. Understanding land surface temperature (LST) is essential for informing public policies that guide territorial planning and support sustainable environmental management. This study examines LST variations in the Alto-Médio Rios Mogi Guaçu and Pardo Basin, located in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil, using Landsat-8 imagery from September 2015 and 2023, two of the hottest years ever recorded in the country. Notably, the analysis integrates the combined effects of land cover, vegetation, and solar radiation on local thermal dynamics—an approach rarely applied to medium-sized tropical watersheds. Findings reveal that more than a quarter of the study area experienced an average LST increase of approximately 5 °C, with some zones showing increases exceeding 10 °C. The most affected areas correspond to regions characterized by intensive anthropogenic land use, vegetation loss, and high solar radiation. In contrast, areas with well-preserved native vegetation maintained lower surface temperatures, even under high solar exposure. The study underscores the vital role of vegetation cover in moderating soil temperatures and reinforces the urgent need for sustainable land-use practices to mitigate the impacts of local climate change.