Beyond the Hoax Narratives: Understanding Climate Change Conspiracy Beliefs Through the Lens of the US–China Conflicts

Despite the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, conspiracy narratives suggesting that it is a hoax created to mislead people still exist. While research studies and public opinion polls have shown that belief in this hoax conspiracy is not uncommon, they often overlook that climate change conspiracy narratives can extend beyond just this simple “hoax” accusation. Given that conspiracy narratives can evolve from geopolitical conflicts, we propose expanding the psychology of climate change conspiracy beliefs by considering the impacts of these conflicts. We identify two additional dimensions of climate change conspiracy narratives: the historical anti-West narrative of “Western imperialism” from the Cold War, and the “China behind” narrative that stems from United States President Donald Trump's assertion that China is primarily responsible for climate change. We conducted a US–China cross-national survey to examine if people believe these conspiracy narratives and whether such beliefs really represent distinct dimensions. We recruited 1009 and 1024 adult participants from the two countries, respectively, with gender and age groups resembling the distribution in the population census. Both confirmatory factor analyses and latent profile analyses supported the distinction between the three dimensions of climate change conspiracy beliefs, with a more heterogeneous pattern observed among mainland Chinese participants. Furthermore, these conspiracy beliefs were predicted by national collective narcissism, conspiracy mentality, and perceived cost/benefit of climate actions. Our findings suggest that estimating climate change conspiracy beliefs solely based on the “hoax” narratives may underestimate the prevalence of conspiratorial explanations of climate change beyond the Western context. They also highlight how rising tensions between the United States and China would contribute to climate change conspiracy beliefs. We discuss the potential implications of incorporating geopolitical conflicts into understanding belief in conspiracy theories.