双重气候威胁的隐性负担：PM2.5和极端温度对热带气候中心血管和呼吸系统死亡率的区域特异性叠加影响

Q2 Environmental Science

Environmental Challenges Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI:10.1016/j.envc.2025.101276

Phichet Khunthong, Panuwat Vittayapraparat, Sitthichok Puangthongthub

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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化增加了极端温度事件（热和寒潮）的频率和强度，同时也增加了PM2.5的波动。然而，有限的研究已经探讨了ETEs和PM2.5之间的加性相互作用对死亡率的影响，特别是在热带地区，其相互作用可能与温带环境不同。方法采用分布滞后非线性模型，采用两阶段时间序列方法，估算etas和PM2.5对每日心血管和呼吸系统死亡率的区域特异性相对危险度（RRs）。使用相互作用的相对超额风险（rei）对加性相互作用进行量化。结果骂波在中央区（心脏RR = 1.044, lag0）和南部（呼吸RR = 1.038, lag21）的作用最强。在北方，热浪风险最高（心脏= 1.032,lag0；呼吸= 1.041,lag0）。PM2.5显著提高了所有地区的死亡率，尤其是南部（心脏= 1.013,lag0）和东部（呼吸= 1.018,lag0）。冷空气与pm2.5的交互作用在中部地区最大（呼吸系统的rei = 0.308，心脏系统的rei = 0.203），其次是曼谷（呼吸系统= 0.019，心脏系统= 0.070）。在曼谷和南部，热浪与pm2.5的相互作用也很显著。曼谷居民易受这两种类型的感染；南方只经历了热浪和pm2.5的影响。在敏感亚组中，相互作用增加了女性（寒潮= 0.117，热浪= 0.045）、老年人（≥65岁）（寒潮= 0.066，热浪= 0.031）以及肺心病（寒潮= 0.054，热浪= 0.141）和外因肺部疾病（寒潮= 0.264，热浪= 0.306）的心血管易感性。结论：ete和PM2.5之间的相互作用显著增加了热带亚群的死亡风险，特别是在寒潮期间。这些发现支持全球紧急做好准备，以减轻热带环境中极端气候汇聚和空气污染对健康的影响。

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The hidden burden of dual climate threats: Region-specific additive impacts of PM2.5 and temperature extremes on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in a tropical climate

Background

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events (ETEs; heat and cold waves), alongside fluctuations in PM_2.5. However, limited research has explored the additive interaction between ETEs and PM_2.5 on mortality, especially in tropical regions where interactions may differ from temperate settings.

Methods

A two-stage time-series using distributed lag non-linear models was applied to estimate region-specific relative risks (RRs) of ETEs and PM_2.5 on daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Additive interaction was quantified using the Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI).

Results

Cold waves had the strongest effect in the central region (cardio RR = 1.044, lag0) and the south (respiratory RR = 1.038, lag21). In the north, heat waves showed the highest risks (cardio = 1.032, lag0; respiratory = 1.041, lag0). PM_2.5 significantly elevated mortality in all regions, especially the south (cardio = 1.013, lag0) and east (respiratory = 1.018, lag0). Cold wave-PM_2.5 interaction was greatest in the central region (respiratory RERI = 0.308; cardio = 0.203), followed by Bangkok (respiratory = 0.019; cardio = 0.070). Heat wave-PM_2.5 interaction was also significant in Bangkok and the south. Bangkok residents were vulnerable to both ETEs; the south experienced only heat wave-PM_2.5 effects. In sensitive subgroups, interactions heightened cardiovascular susceptibility among females (cold wave = 0.117; heat wave = 0.045), older adults ≥65 (cold wave = 0.066; heat wave = 0.031), and in sub-diseases like pulmonary heart disease (cold wave = 0.054; heat wave = 0.141) and lung diseases from external causes (cold wave = 0.264; heat wave = 0.306).

Conclusions

Interactions between ETEs and PM_2.5 significantly increased mortality risks in tropical subpopulations, particularly during cold waves. These findings support urgent global preparedness to mitigate health impacts from the convergence of climate extremes and air pollution in tropical contexts.

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