Pathways towards just transitions in the Global South

As global decarbonization efforts accelerate, ensuring a just transition has become a critical objective, especially in low- and middle-income countries where climate action intersects with entrenched development challenges. This study uses a realist review and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of 80 interventions across 76 studies to identify the configurations of financial, institutional, and governance conditions that contribute towards just transitions in developing countries. We find seven distinct causal pathways, with robust funding and strategic planning emerging as universally necessary conditions. Surprisingly, factors often considered essential—such as stakeholder engagement and policy alignment—are not consistently present. Complementary fractional logistic regression reinforces the centrality of funding and planning, while underscoring the limited predictive power of single variables. Our findings highlight the configurational and context-dependent nature of just transition outcomes. By illuminating diverse pathways to inclusive decarbonization, this article contributes to bridging the empirical gap in understanding transition policy in developing countries.