预见未知：评估人工智能对国际贸易的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.016

Adam Jakubik , Lorenzo Rotunno , Alisha Saini

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引用次数: 0

摘要

人工智能（AI）具有重塑国家比较优势和改变国际贸易模式的潜力。在本文中，我们通过在生产过程中引入人工智能冲击并分析这种冲击如何影响贸易动态来模拟人工智能技术对双边贸易流动的影响。然后，我们对近年来人工智能暴露与双边出口之间的关系进行了实证估计。我们的研究结果表明，人工智能与贸易存在显著的正相关关系：人工智能敞口每增加一个标准差，出口平均增长31%。此外，我们还探讨了这种影响在不同贸易伙伴之间的差异，强调了发达经济体、新兴经济体和低收入经济体之间的不同模式。

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Foresee the unseen: Evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on international trade

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape countries’ comparative advantage and transform international trade patterns. In this paper, we model the effect of AI technologies on bilateral trade flows by introducing an AI shock to the production process and analyzing how this shock influences trade dynamics. We then empirically estimate the relationship between AI exposure and bilateral exports in recent years. Our findings reveal that AI has a significant positive correlation with trade: a one standard deviation increase in AI exposure is associated with a 31 percent rise in exports, on average. Additionally, we explore how this effect varies across trading partners, highlighting distinct patterns between advanced, emerging, and low-income economies.

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来源期刊

Journal of Policy Modeling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

11.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.