贸易政策改革的动力是什么？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.014

Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Jonathan D. Ostry , Federico Steinberg

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文根据一种新的具有广泛国家和时间范围的非关税壁垒指数，研究了国际贸易非关税壁垒的宏观经济和政治决定因素。我们采用了一种结构化的实证方法，整合了多种方法，以确定哪些因素与贸易改革（定义为非关税壁垒的有意义的变化）最密切相关。我们发现结构性因素，宏观经济因素（尤其是通货膨胀和出口集中度）和政治因素（尤其是民主、腐败、政治两极分化和民粹主义）都是贸易政策变化的重要相关因素。其中，政治和制度变量解释了非关税壁垒政策变化的最大份额。

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What drives trade policy reform?

This paper examines the macroeconomic and political determinants of non-tariff barriers to international trade based on a new index of such restrictions with broad country and time coverage. We employ a structured empirical approach that integrates multiple methodologies to identify which factors are the most robust correlates of trade reform (defined as meaningful changes in non-tariff barriers). We find that structural factors, both macroeconomic (especially inflation and export concentration) and political (especially democracy, corruption, political polarization and populism) emerge as robust correlates of changes in trade policy. Among these, political and institutional variables explain the largest share of nontariff barrier policy variation.

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来源期刊

Journal of Policy Modeling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

11.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.