Counterproductive development: New towns may produce and attract more long-distance commuting

Aggregate studies on commuting behavior have primarily focused on trips produced from an area while overlooking those attracted to the area, leading to a partial understanding of commuting patterns. Using mobile phone signaling data from Dalian and Shenyang, China, this study illustrates the spatial distributions of produced and attracted commuting distances and examines their nonlinear associations with built environment characteristics, using an XGBoost model. Results show strong positive correlations between produced and attracted commuting. Distance to business center is the most important predictor. As this distance grows, both produced and attracted commuting distances increase. Its association with attracted commuting distance differs from that in developed countries. Notably, some suburban new towns—intended to reduce commuting through simultaneous population and employment decentralization—have evolved into sparsely populated “job islands,” intensifying long-distance commuting instead. Therefore, phased development and more integrated residential and employment decentralization are conducive to mitigating long-distance commutes.