Xi Cheng, Jinzhao Ma, Wenhua Wang, Xiting Cai, Biying Li, Li Chen, Bing Yao
{"title":"1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家不孕症及其亚型的负担和趋势，并预测到2035年。","authors":"Xi Cheng, Jinzhao Ma, Wenhua Wang, Xiting Cai, Biying Li, Li Chen, Bing Yao","doi":"10.1007/s10815-025-03592-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To study the global, regional and national burden and trend of primary and secondary infertility, by sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), over the period 1990-2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to infertility and its subtypes were retrieved from the GBD study 2021 for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. The counts and age-standardized rates are presented, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed using linear regression analysis. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine the effects of population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts on disease burden. Frontier analysis was performed to identify potential improvement areas and disparities among countries by development status. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) predicted global lung cancer mortality from 2020 to 2035.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of infertility changed from 4071.04 (95% UI: 2660.05, 6223.25) per 100,000 in 1990 to 5030.42 (3207.13, 7918.99) per 100,000 in 2021, with the EAPC being 0.65. The age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) changed from 23.15 (8.91, 53.73) per 100,000 in 1990 to 28.54 (11.05, 67.94) per 100,000 in 2021, with the EAPC being 0.52. It is anticipated that the ASPR exhibits a downward trend for overall primary infertility, whereas they are expected to show an upward trend for overall secondary infertility by 2035, in comparison with 2021.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Governments and the public should recognize the magnitude of the issue of infertility and prioritize implementing targeted interventions and strategies to improve reproductive health worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":15246,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global, regional, and national burden and trend of infertility and its subtypes from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2035.\",\"authors\":\"Xi Cheng, Jinzhao Ma, Wenhua Wang, Xiting Cai, Biying Li, Li Chen, Bing Yao\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10815-025-03592-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To study the global, regional and national burden and trend of primary and secondary infertility, by sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), over the period 1990-2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to infertility and its subtypes were retrieved from the GBD study 2021 for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. The counts and age-standardized rates are presented, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed using linear regression analysis. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine the effects of population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts on disease burden. Frontier analysis was performed to identify potential improvement areas and disparities among countries by development status. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) predicted global lung cancer mortality from 2020 to 2035.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of infertility changed from 4071.04 (95% UI: 2660.05, 6223.25) per 100,000 in 1990 to 5030.42 (3207.13, 7918.99) per 100,000 in 2021, with the EAPC being 0.65. The age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) changed from 23.15 (8.91, 53.73) per 100,000 in 1990 to 28.54 (11.05, 67.94) per 100,000 in 2021, with the EAPC being 0.52. It is anticipated that the ASPR exhibits a downward trend for overall primary infertility, whereas they are expected to show an upward trend for overall secondary infertility by 2035, in comparison with 2021.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Governments and the public should recognize the magnitude of the issue of infertility and prioritize implementing targeted interventions and strategies to improve reproductive health worldwide.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15246,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10815-025-03592-5\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GENETICS & HEREDITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10815-025-03592-5","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GENETICS & HEREDITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global, regional, and national burden and trend of infertility and its subtypes from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2035.
Purpose: To study the global, regional and national burden and trend of primary and secondary infertility, by sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), over the period 1990-2021.
Methods: Data on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to infertility and its subtypes were retrieved from the GBD study 2021 for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. The counts and age-standardized rates are presented, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed using linear regression analysis. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine the effects of population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts on disease burden. Frontier analysis was performed to identify potential improvement areas and disparities among countries by development status. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) predicted global lung cancer mortality from 2020 to 2035.
Results: Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of infertility changed from 4071.04 (95% UI: 2660.05, 6223.25) per 100,000 in 1990 to 5030.42 (3207.13, 7918.99) per 100,000 in 2021, with the EAPC being 0.65. The age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) changed from 23.15 (8.91, 53.73) per 100,000 in 1990 to 28.54 (11.05, 67.94) per 100,000 in 2021, with the EAPC being 0.52. It is anticipated that the ASPR exhibits a downward trend for overall primary infertility, whereas they are expected to show an upward trend for overall secondary infertility by 2035, in comparison with 2021.
Conclusions: Governments and the public should recognize the magnitude of the issue of infertility and prioritize implementing targeted interventions and strategies to improve reproductive health worldwide.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics publishes cellular, molecular, genetic, and epigenetic discoveries advancing our understanding of the biology and underlying mechanisms from gametogenesis to offspring health. Special emphasis is placed on the practice and evolution of assisted reproduction technologies (ARTs) with reference to the diagnosis and management of diseases affecting fertility. Our goal is to educate our readership in the translation of basic and clinical discoveries made from human or relevant animal models to the safe and efficacious practice of human ARTs. The scientific rigor and ethical standards embraced by the JARG editorial team ensures a broad international base of expertise guiding the marriage of contemporary clinical research paradigms with basic science discovery. JARG publishes original papers, minireviews, case reports, and opinion pieces often combined into special topic issues that will educate clinicians and scientists with interests in the mechanisms of human development that bear on the treatment of infertility and emerging innovations in human ARTs. The guiding principles of male and female reproductive health impacting pre- and post-conceptional viability and developmental potential are emphasized within the purview of human reproductive health in current and future generations of our species.
The journal is published in cooperation with the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, an organization of more than 8,000 physicians, researchers, nurses, technicians and other professionals dedicated to advancing knowledge and expertise in reproductive biology.
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