[Energy Demand and Carbon Emission Prediction in Anhui Province Based on LEAP Model].

China is the world's largest energy consuming and carbon emitting country, and exploring the efficient carbon reduction path of Anhui, as a major energy province in China, is of great significance for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. Based on the economic and social development forecast data of Anhui Province, a LEAP-Anhui model is constructed to conduct in-depth analysis of the future energy demand and carbon emissions in Anhui Province and explore the optimal path for energy conservation and emission reduction in various industries. The results showed that： ① By 2060, under the baseline scenario, the total energy demand in Anhui Province was predicted to be 205 Mt, and the total carbon emissions would be 177 Mt, failing to achieve the carbon neutrality target. In a comprehensive scenario, the total energy demand in Anhui Province would be 139 Mt, and the total carbon emissions would be 87 Mt, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2059. ② In terms of energy demand, the industrial restructuring scenario reduced the industrial energy demand to 102.98 Mt, the building energy-saving scenario steadily reduced the energy demand in the construction industry to 3.07 Mt, the low-carbon living scenario reduced the energy demand for residents to 13.26 Mt, and the electrical acceleration scenario reduced the coal energy demand in the power conversion sector to 11.44 Mt. ③ In terms of carbon emissions, the industrial energy efficiency improvement scenario significantly reduced industrial carbon emissions to 64.42 Mt, the building energy efficiency scenario steadily reduced construction industry carbon emissions to 2.29 Mt, the new energy vehicle promotion scenario reduced transportation industry carbon emissions to 4.54 Mt, the low-carbon living scenario reduced residential carbon emissions to 12.28 Mt, and the electrical acceleration scenario reduced power conversion sector carbon emissions to 13.2 Mt. The research results are of great significance in promoting the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy.