Marcin Piotr Walkowiak, Jarosław Walkowiak, Jarosław Szydłowski, Dariusz Walkowiak
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The hidden seasonality of pharyngitis and tonsillitis: a recurring early-summer wave of unclear aetiology.
Limited studies on the seasonality of pharyngitis and tonsillitis suggest subtle but unexplained fluctuations in case numbers that deviate from patterns seen in other respiratory diagnoses. Data on weekly acute respiratory infection diagnoses from 2010-2022, provided by the Polish National Healthcare Fund, included a total of 360 million visits. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were sourced from the Copernicus Climate Data Store. Seasonal pattern was estimated using the STL model, while the impact of temperature was calculated with SARIMAX. A recurring early-summer wave of an unspecified pathogen causing pharyngitis and tonsillitis was identified. The strongest pattern was observed in children under 10, though other age groups also showed somewhat elevated case numbers. The reproductive number of the pathogen is modulated by warmer temperatures; however, summer holidays and pandemic restrictions interrupt its spread. The infection wave is relatively flat, suggesting either genuinely slow spread or multiple waves of related pathogens. Symptomatic data unambiguously demonstrate existence of pathogens of quite distinct characteristics. Given its consistent year-to-year pattern, identifying these potential pathogens could enhance respective treatment, including antibiotic therapy.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.