Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Simon Treu, Anna Buch, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel
{"title":"洪水影响的归因显示了自1950年以来欧洲适应的强大效益","authors":"Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Simon Treu, Anna Buch, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adt7068","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div >Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.</div>","PeriodicalId":21609,"journal":{"name":"Science Advances","volume":"11 33","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/sciadv.adt7068","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950\",\"authors\":\"Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Simon Treu, Anna Buch, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel\",\"doi\":\"10.1126/sciadv.adt7068\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div >Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.</div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21609,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Science Advances\",\"volume\":\"11 33\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/sciadv.adt7068\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Science Advances\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adt7068\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Science Advances","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adt7068","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950
Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.
期刊介绍:
Science Advances, an open-access journal by AAAS, publishes impactful research in diverse scientific areas. It aims for fair, fast, and expert peer review, providing freely accessible research to readers. Led by distinguished scientists, the journal supports AAAS's mission by extending Science magazine's capacity to identify and promote significant advances. Evolving digital publishing technologies play a crucial role in advancing AAAS's global mission for science communication and benefitting humankind.