洪水影响的归因显示了自1950年以来欧洲适应的强大效益

IF 12.5 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Simon Treu, Anna Buch, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel
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引用次数: 0

摘要

洪水对欧洲的影响被认为正在增加,但将影响归因于过去洪水的气候和社会驱动因素的研究仅限于最近发生的一些事件。在这里,我们提出了一项影响归因研究,涵盖了1950年至2020年间欧洲洪水相关影响的83%至96%的1729个河流、闪电、沿海和复合事件。研究表明,在大多数地区,相对于1950年基线的洪水影响程度主要是由人类直接活动调节的。面临风险的人口和经济价值有所增加,但由于风险管理得到改善,脆弱性降低,从而在很大程度上弥补了暴露增加的影响。观测到的长期气候变化和人类对河流流域的改变也是许多地区洪水灾害的重要驱动因素,但最终与整个大陆影响的总体趋势关系不大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950

Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950
Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.
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来源期刊
Science Advances
Science Advances 综合性期刊-综合性期刊
CiteScore
21.40
自引率
1.50%
发文量
1937
审稿时长
29 weeks
期刊介绍: Science Advances, an open-access journal by AAAS, publishes impactful research in diverse scientific areas. It aims for fair, fast, and expert peer review, providing freely accessible research to readers. Led by distinguished scientists, the journal supports AAAS's mission by extending Science magazine's capacity to identify and promote significant advances. Evolving digital publishing technologies play a crucial role in advancing AAAS's global mission for science communication and benefitting humankind.
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