日本环境条件与呼吸道合胞病毒感染之间的关系：时空分析

IF 3.8 4区医学 Q2 IMMUNOLOGY

Open Forum Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-08-13 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI:10.1093/ofid/ofaf392

Jingyi Liang, Saturnino Luz, You Li, Harish Nair

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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究背景：呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）是儿童的重要疾病负担方法：我们引入了一个新的3阶段、数据驱动的框架，从时空角度评估环境因素（包括气象条件、空气污染物和极端天气）对RSV感染的影响。它包括：(1)RSV传播的时空格局；(2)建立层次模型（HSDLNM），研究环境因素与RSV传播之间的关系，估计相对风险（RRs）和95%置信区间；(3)一个可解释的机器学习模型，高斯过程增强，利用历史环境数据预测RSV感染。我们验证了拟议框架在日本的适用性。结果：收集了2013-2019年日本47个县新实验室确诊rsv阳性病例数、气象因素和空气污染物的每周数据。我们确定了与RSV感染升高密切相关的气象阈值，特别是周平均温度20°C （RR, 1.13）和周平均相对湿度70% （RR, 1.06）。短期暴露于2.5 μ m颗粒物（pm2.5）与感染风险升高有关。此外，历史环境数据有助于预测日本的RSV活动。结论：本研究揭示了环境因素与日本RSV感染的关系。我们的框架可以应用于具有类似RSV季节性的地区，以进一步了解区域环境影响。这项研究有助于为有关RSV预防策略的政策决策提供信息，支持控制和预防早期传播的具有成本效益的措施。

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Associations Between Environmental Conditions and Infection With Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Japan: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant disease burden among children <5 worldwide. Yet systematic analyses of how complex environmental factors are associated with RSV transmission are still lacking in many countries.

Methods: We introduced a novel 3-stage, data-driven framework to assess the impacts of environmental factors, including meteorological conditions, air pollutants, and extreme weather, on RSV infections from a spatiotemporal perspective. It includes (1) spatiotemporal patterns of RSV transmission; (2) a hierarchical model (HSDLNM) to examine associations between environmental factors and RSV transmission, estimating relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals; and (3) an interpretable machine learning model, Gaussian Process Boosting, to predict RSV infections using historical environmental data. We validated the applicability of the proposed framework in Japan.

Results: Weekly data on the number of newly lab-confirmed RSV-positive cases, meteorological factors, and air pollutants were collected from 47 Japanese prefectures (2013-2019). We identified the meteorological thresholds strongly linked to elevated RSV infections, particularly weekly average temperature <10°C (RR, 1.10) or >20°C (RR, 1.13) and weekly average relative humidity <60% (RR, 1.04) or >70% (RR, 1.06). Short-term exposure to particulate matter of 2.5 $μ m (P M_{2.5})$ is associated with elevated infection risk. Additionally, historical environmental data aid in forecasting RSV activities in Japan.

Conclusions: This study presents the relationships between environmental factors and RSV infections in Japan. Our framework could be applied to areas with similar RSV seasonality to further understand environmental impacts regionally. This research helps inform policy decisions on RSV prophylaxis strategies, supporting cost-effective measures for controlling and preventing early transmission.

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来源期刊

Open Forum Infectious Diseases Medicine-Neurology (clinical)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

630

审稿时长

9 weeks

期刊介绍： Open Forum Infectious Diseases provides a global forum for the publication of clinical, translational, and basic research findings in a fully open access, online journal environment. The journal reflects the broad diversity of the field of infectious diseases, and focuses on the intersection of biomedical science and clinical practice, with a particular emphasis on knowledge that holds the potential to improve patient care in populations around the world. Fully peer-reviewed, OFID supports the international community of infectious diseases experts by providing a venue for articles that further the understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases.