The relationship between virtual antenatal care and pregnancy outcomes in a diverse UK inner-city population: a group-based trajectory modeling approach using routine health records.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major reconfiguration of maternity services, particularly an increase in virtual antenatal care.

Objective: We explored associations between virtual antenatal care trajectories and pregnancy outcomes.

Study design: Pregnancy and birth outcome data were obtained from a multiethnic and socioeconomically deprived UK inner-city population before and during the pandemic (with and without lockdown). Data were collected using a health record data linkage from the Born in South London cohort. Antenatal care was characterized by the number of outpatient contacts during 6 gestational windows: 0 to 14⁺⁶, 15 to 20⁺⁶, 21 to 27⁺⁶, 28 to 32⁺⁶, 33 to 36⁺⁶, and ≥37 weeks' gestation. In each window, the proportion of virtual antenatal care was grouped into quartiles, and group-based trajectory modeling was used to extract virtual antenatal care trajectories. Associations between these trajectories and pregnancy outcomes were explored using adjusted multinominal logistic regression.

Results: The analysis included 34,114 mother-child dyads (October 2018-July 2023). Group-based trajectory modeling suggested 4 trajectories of virtual antenatal care contacts: low and stable virtual care throughout pregnancy (Trajectory 0; n=27,751 pregnancies, 81.3%), high first trimester virtual care (Trajectory 1; n=832, 2.4%), high second trimester virtual care (Trajectory 2; n=2,410, 7.1%), and high third trimester virtual care (Trajectory 3; n=3,121, 9.2%). Following adjustment, compared with the low and stable group (Trajectory 0), high second trimester virtual care was associated with less gestational hypertension (adjusted relative risk ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.96) and assisted vaginal birth (0.87 [0.76-1.00]), and more premature births (<37 weeks, 1.21 [1.02-1.44]), labor induction (1.13; 1.02-1.25), breech presentation (1.92; 1.02-3.62), and postpartum hemorrhage (1.14; 1.00-1.30). Similarly, compared to the low and stable group (Trajectory 0), high third trimester virtual care had less gestational hypertension (0.84 [0.73, 0.96]), more premature births (<37 weeks; 1.35; 1.16-1.58) and elective (1.54; 1.38-1.72) or emergency (1.21; 1.01-1.34) cesarean sections, and neonatal intensive care admissions (1.28; 1.09-1.50); fewer third-degree/fourth-degree vaginal tears (0.82; 0.75-0.90); and less early infant skin-to-skin contact (0.82; 0.73-0.92) and breastfeeding (0.90; 0.81-0.99).

Conclusion: A higher proportion of virtual care contacts in antenatal care in the second or third trimesters was associated with a greater risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.