Modeling species-specific migration to enhance climate connectivity under climate and anthropogenic stressors

Climate change and human disturbances are shifting species distribution ranges, intensifying the global biodiversity crisis. However, meso-scale assessments of climate connectivity and species migration pathways under compound climate and anthropogenic stressors remain limited. This study presents a comprehensive framework for assessing climate connectivity under such compound stressors, using the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of North China as a case study. By integrating climate and human exposure modeling with species-specific thermal tolerance, the framework quantifies spatial patterns of minimum cumulative exposure, climate velocity, and centrality under both climate-only and composite (climate − human) exposure scenarios. Results indicate that topographic heterogeneity is the primary driver of exposure cost variation. Projected migration pathways converge into belt-shaped key node areas that link the Bashang Plateau and North China Plain (source regions) with the Taihang Mountains (sink regions), highlighting priority areas for enhancing climate connectivity. Addressing dual stressors is crucial not only for maintaining functional connectivity but also for minimizing the risk of invasive species spread. Given divergent migration routes among species with varying thermal tolerances, conservation strategies must account for both temporary holdouts and long-term refugia along transboundary pathways at broader spatio-temporal scales. Incorporating additional species-specific traits—such as dispersal capacity and range limits—supports adaptive, trait-sensitive climate corridor design under climate change.