Quantifying urban adaptation planning in flood-prone communities of Islamabad, Pakistan: An index-based approach

Urban flood risks have increased due to climate change and uncontrolled urbanization. There is a limited understanding regarding the conceptualization and quantification of the adaptation planning concept from a community perspective. This study fills the gap by proposing an adaptation planning index for flood-prone urban communities. Three urban communities in Islamabad, Pakistan, were selected for this study. A sample of 600 households was collected using structured questionnaires. Perceived adaptation planning was measured from two perspectives. The Dimension-based Adaptation Planning Index (D-API) was used to measure perceptions regarding behavioral, structural, and ecological adaptation planning dimensions, while the Component-based Adaptation Planning Index (C-API) evaluated awareness, willingness, and self-efficacy. The indexes were developed based on context-specific socioeconomic and adaptation planning indicators relevant to the urban flood risk landscape in Islamabad, Pakistan. Correlation analysis revealed a strong correlation among the adaptation dimensions and a moderate correlation among adaptation components. Multiple regression analysis identified socioeconomic factors that affect adaptation planning. The results indicate that the communities possess greater knowledge of and trust in ecological adaptation planning measures. High mean values were observed for willingness and self-efficacy. Education level and previous flood experience positively influenced adaptation planning, while age, household size, number of elderly members, and sources of income had a negative influence. The proposed index can assist development practitioners, planners, policymakers, and disaster managers in validating their current and proposed flood adaptation strategies. The index can be customized according to local conditions and hazard type for effective risk reduction and adaptation planning for urban areas.