Long-term dynamics of coastal dune landscapes and habitat diversity: Insights from a quarter century of resurveys in Castelporziano Presidential Estate

Coastal dunes are dynamic ecosystems vulnerable to human impact. Traditional monitoring relies on costly field surveys, but high-resolution satellite imagery offers an efficient alternative. This study integrates remote sensing (RS) and field data to analyze vegetation and landscape changes over 25 years in the highly protected Castelporziano Presidential Estate. We examined three habitat groups—Herbaceous Dune Vegetation (HDV), Woody Dune Vegetation (WDV), and Broadleaf Mixed Forest (BMF)—using 58 resurveyed plots and land cover maps. Landscape dynamics and vegetation compositional changes were assessed, and temporal patterns were calculated for three buffer sizes (25, 75, and 125 m), using Bray–Curtis dissimilarity and differences in landscape metrics. Random forest models evaluated the relationship between landscape and vegetation compositional changes. The results revealed a reduction in artificial surfaces, greater vegetation encroachment, and clear signs of natural succession. HDV exhibited a shift toward grassland species, reflecting ongoing changes in vegetation composition. WDV experienced the most pronounced compositional change, while BMF showed signs of structural homogenization. Habitat proportion emerged as the strongest predictor of compositional changes, especially at the finest scale. These findings confirm the value of combining RS and field data for long-term monitoring and provide useful insights for managing coastal dune habitats.