中国新能源汽车退役电池回收能力的区域差异:基于销量预测的视角

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Bingchun Liu , Jiali Chen , Yuan Gao , Xinming Zhang , Shiming Zhao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着全球能源转型和碳中和目标的推进,新能源汽车作为减少化石燃料依赖和碳排放的重要途径,在中国出现了爆发式增长。第一波大规模的电池退役浪潮迫在眉睫,不完善的回收系统可能引发重金属污染和资源浪费等环境风险。尽管中国已经建立了一个全国性的回收网络,但在省级层面上,显著的区域不平衡仍然存在。本研究旨在揭示废旧电池分布及其与回收能力的不匹配风险,为区域差别化政策的制定提供依据。为了实现这一目标,本文建立了一个综合灰色关联分析、离散小波变换和双向长短期记忆网络的多因素模型,以预测2024 - 2035年中国31个省份的新能源汽车销量。采用动态威布尔分布对EoL电池进行量化,采用皮尔逊系数对回收容量匹配进行评价。结果表明:(1)到2033年,新能源汽车市场渗透率将超过50%,比政策目标提前两年;(2) EoL电池将在2026年开始激增,华东地区将占全国总量的42%,成为主要枢纽;(3)北京、天津和上海已经出现了回收能力缺口,其他省份将在2026年后逐步进入产能不足阶段。本研究揭示了省际尺度上回收网络和退役量的时空演变,提出了区域风险预警和跨区域协作等优化策略。研究结果为政府产能规划和企业投资决策提供了科学依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Regional differences in the recycling capacity of retired batteries for new energy vehicles in China: A perspective of sales volume forecasting
With the global energy transition and the advancement of carbon neutrality goals, new energy vehicles (NEVs), as a critical pathway to reduce fossil fuel dependence and carbon emissions, have experienced explosive growth in China. The first large-scale wave of battery retirements is imminent, and an inadequate recycling system could trigger environmental risks such as heavy metal pollution and resource waste. Although China has established a nationwide recycling network, significant regional imbalances persist at the provincial level. This study aims to reveal the distribution of end-of-life (EoL) batteries and the mismatch risks with recycling capacity, providing a basis for regionally differentiated policy formulation. To achieve this, a multi-factor model is developed integrating grey relational analysis, discrete wavelet transform, and bidirectional long short-term memory network to forecast NEVs sales across China's 31 provinces from 2024 to 2035. The dynamic Weibull distribution is employed to quantify EoL batteries, and the Pearson coefficient is utilized to evaluate recycling capacity matching. The results indicate that: (1) NEV market penetration will exceed 50 % by 2033, two years ahead of the policy target; (2) EoL batteries will surge starting in 2026, with Eastern China accounting for 42 % of the national total, emerging as the primary hub; (3) Recycling capacity gaps have already emerged in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, while other provinces will gradually enter phases of insufficient capacity post-2026. This study uncovers the spatio-temporal evolution of recycling networks and retirement volumes at the provincial scale, proposing optimization strategies such as regional risk alerts and cross-regional collaboration. These findings provide scientific support for governmental capacity planning and corporate investment decisions.
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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