Participatory scenario planning for sustainable development in San Pedro de Atacama, Chile: Addressing water scarcity and cultural preservation

Global changes present significant challenges for development, particularly for Indigenous communities, owing to their economic and social impacts. This study explored participatory scenarios for the sustainable development of San Pedro de Atacama, over time scales of 10, 30, 50, and 100 years. Using a mixed-methods approach (quan→ QUAL), the research engaged key stakeholders, with an emphasis on the local Indigenous Lican Antai population, to identify critical pressures and events influencing the region's future. The findings reveal deep concerns regarding water scarcity, climate change, expanding lithium mining, increased tourism, and loss of Indigenous cultural identity. Two main scenarios have emerged: “Social Water Management and “Social Distrust”. In both scenarios, future development could result in a significant loss of historical and cultural roots and deterioration of biodiversity. Water scarcity has been identified as a critical factor catalyzing potential events, such as migration, population reduction, the decline of agriculture, and the emergence of new water management initiatives. This study proposes six strategic axes for sustainable development: community unity, multi-perspective tourism planning, territorial management, trust-building, leadership strengthening, and conflict transformation. Successful implementation requires coordination with higher levels of governance and efforts to incorporate traditional and Indigenous knowledge into public policies and management strategies. This pioneering study offers crucial insights into community perceptions of climate vulnerability and pathways for sustainable development in the Atacama Desert region.