预测疑似冠心病的绝经前妇女冠状动脉疾病风险的nomogram。

IF 3.9 2区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Yahui Qiu, Qifeng Guo, Xuejuan Feng, Weiqiang Xiao, Shisen Liang, Mei Wei
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于雌激素的心脏保护作用,绝经前妇女患冠状动脉疾病(CAD)的风险相对较低。然而,近年来绝经前妇女冠心病的发病率呈上升趋势。因此,本研究的目的是建立一个临床预测模型来估计绝经前妇女CAD的风险。本研究纳入2018年9月至2021年12月在河北医科大学第一医院行冠状动脉造影的绝经前妇女。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归方法确定预测绝经前妇女CAD风险的最佳变量。然后使用多元逻辑回归分析构建了一个nomogram。最后,使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)评估nomogram预测性能,使用校准曲线评估其校准性能,使用决策曲线分析(Decision curve Analysis, DCA)评估临床净效益。222名绝经前妇女最终被纳入分析,其中86名被诊断为CAD。通过LASSO和多因素logistic回归,最终筛选出5个预测变量:年龄、糖尿病(DM)、天冬氨酸转氨酶(AST)、碱性磷酸酶(ALP)、脂蛋白(Lp(a))。利用这5个变量构建预测模型,以nomogram形式表示。图的标定曲线拟合良好。nomogram receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)下面积为0.819 (95%CI: 0.760 ~ 0.878)。决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis, DCA)表明,该方法在临床应用中具有良好的净效益。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A nomogram for predicting the risk of coronary artery disease in premenopausal women with suspected coronary artery disease.

Due to the cardioprotective effects of estrogen, premenopausal women have a relatively lower risk of developing coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the incidence of CAD in premenopausal women has been increasing in recent years. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop a clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of CAD in premenopausal women. This study included premenopausal women who underwent coronary angiography at the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University from September 2018 to December 2021. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method was used to identify the optimal variables for predicting the risk of CAD in premenopausal women. A nomogram was then constructed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Finally, the predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), its calibration performance was assessed using calibration curves, and clinical net benefit was evaluated using Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). A total of 222 premenopausal women were ultimately included for analysis, of whom 86 were diagnosed with CAD. Through LASSO and multivariate logistic regression, five predictive variables were finally selected: age, diabetes mellitus (DM), aspartate transaminase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)). These five variables were used to construct a prediction model, which was presented in the form of a nomogram. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the nomogram was 0.819 (95%CI: 0.760-0.878). Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram can achieve good net benefit in clinical applications.

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来源期刊
Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports Natural Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
4.30%
发文量
19567
审稿时长
3.9 months
期刊介绍: We publish original research from all areas of the natural sciences, psychology, medicine and engineering. You can learn more about what we publish by browsing our specific scientific subject areas below or explore Scientific Reports by browsing all articles and collections. Scientific Reports has a 2-year impact factor: 4.380 (2021), and is the 6th most-cited journal in the world, with more than 540,000 citations in 2020 (Clarivate Analytics, 2021). •Engineering Engineering covers all aspects of engineering, technology, and applied science. It plays a crucial role in the development of technologies to address some of the world''s biggest challenges, helping to save lives and improve the way we live. •Physical sciences Physical sciences are those academic disciplines that aim to uncover the underlying laws of nature — often written in the language of mathematics. It is a collective term for areas of study including astronomy, chemistry, materials science and physics. •Earth and environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences cover all aspects of Earth and planetary science and broadly encompass solid Earth processes, surface and atmospheric dynamics, Earth system history, climate and climate change, marine and freshwater systems, and ecology. It also considers the interactions between humans and these systems. •Biological sciences Biological sciences encompass all the divisions of natural sciences examining various aspects of vital processes. The concept includes anatomy, physiology, cell biology, biochemistry and biophysics, and covers all organisms from microorganisms, animals to plants. •Health sciences The health sciences study health, disease and healthcare. This field of study aims to develop knowledge, interventions and technology for use in healthcare to improve the treatment of patients.
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